Iran Showdown Draws Closer

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, The CounterTerrorism Blog:

After a two-year moratorium on its nuclear program, Iran defied the U.S. and European powers last week by resuming nuclear research. Iran decided to remove UN seals at a nuclear plant in Natanz, which would enable it to resume research into uranium enrichment. Now the U.S., UN Security Council members, the IAEA and Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are all readying for a showdown over Iran's nuclear program.

Yesterday, Republican and Democratic senators said that the U.S. may have to undertake a military strike to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, but that military force should only be used as a last resort. Senators John McCain (R.-Ariz.) and Evan Bayh (D.-Indiana) both said this, with Bayh stating that there are sensitive elements of Iran's nuclear program that, if attacked, "would dramatically delay its development." Regime Change Iran reports that congressional sources have said "that this joint appearance was carefully prepared by both political parties as a show [of] unity on . . . Iran."

READ MORE

Members of the UN Security Council also met on Monday to decide on a course of action. Moscow and Beijing previously blocked Western efforts to bring Iran before the Security Council, but Russian president Vladimir Putin appears close to changing his mind: "As for Russia and our European partners and the United States -- we have very close positions on the Iranian problem." But even if Russia changes its mind, China could still block UN sanctions.

Even IAEA head Mohammed ElBaradei has explicitly put the use of force on the table: "We are coming to the litmus test in the next few weeks. Diplomacy has to be backed by pressure and, in extreme cases, by force. We have rules. We have to do everything possible to uphold the rules through conviction. If not, then you impose them. Of course, this has to be a last resort, but sometimes you have to do it." ElBaradei has said that Iran has seven weeks to answer the IAEA's outstanding questions, including questions about secret work on nuclear warheads. If Iran doesn't comply by March 6, ElBaradei threatened to declare that the IAEA's inspection has reached a dead end.

Iran is also preparing for the coming conflict. Ahmadinejad launched into an angry tirade against the West on Saturday. He said that Iran would press forward with its nuclear program despite the West's efforts, and made a threat: "You need us more than we need you. All of you today need the Iranian nation. Why are you putting on airs? You don't have that might." Ahmadinejad seems to be referring to possible use of the Iranian oil weapon, given that it is the world's fourth largest oil producer.

I don't expect Iran or the U.S. to back down.