The Last Carrot

Investor's Business Daily, Issue & Insights:

President Bush has decided to give appeasement a chance to fail. That may please Europeans and the mullahs, but how will it play with the Iranian people? Those people, of course, are not allowed to answer that question openly and honestly. But in light of what is going on all over the Middle East, we would not be surprised if they were getting more restless with their life under a theocratic tyranny. READ MORE

It also wouldn't surprise us if they judged the U.S., Britain, France and Germany to be a bit behind the curve.

Despite all the democratic ferment in the region, Western powers are treating Iran's regime as not only legitimate but long-term.

Rather than sanctioning and isolating the mullahs for their long-standing clandestine nuclear program and their support of terrorism, Europe wants to buy their good behavior with economic favors. Bush agreed last week to go along with the Europeans. The White House dropped objections to letting Iran join the World Trade Organization, and it will allow Iran to buy civilian aircraft parts.

Just hours after the White House announced this policy shift, Iran's foreign ministry dismissed it as an empty gesture.

In fact, even those who praise the new Euro-American plan don't seem convinced it will actually work; they're mainly pleased that Bush is following Europe's lead for once.

Actually getting Iran to change, or even to admit past nuclear cheating, will require sterner steps. Few seem to doubt that. And the administration points out that the Europeans are on board for this next phase, at least up to a point. The Euros have agreed that, if Iran balks, the issue would then be referred to the United Nations.

In theory, the Security Council could impose tough sanctions or even authorize military action if Iran doesn't come clean on its uranium enrichment or other bomb-related activities. In practice, especially with France in the mix, the U.N. is likely to shield Iran as it did Iraq. The net effect of the new initiative, then, would likely be to buy time for the mullahs and give them an economic boost.

We're sure this is not the outcome Bush has in mind, and he could be up to something subtle. By letting the Europeans have their shot at handling Iran, he could also be setting them up to take the blame when their efforts fail.

If nothing else, continued Iranian defiance or stalling should help discredit the idea of appeasement and bolster the argument for a tougher stand.

The U.S. is also not the only unfriendly force bearing down on Tehran. Reports say Israel has developed plans for airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites.

Beyond military threats, the mullocracy is watching core parts of its terror empire start to crumble. Key ally Syria is being driven out of Lebanon, where it has sponsored the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah. The Syrian regime itself is beginning to look shaky. The emerging government of Iraq also could seriously weaken the Iranian dictatorship by setting a subversive example: a state that is Islamic and Shiite, yet also democratic and reasonably free.

All this means that the U.S. can get plenty of help if it wants to weaken the current Iran government and help the Iranian people replace it with a democracy. But is that what the administration really wants to do? The president has said, repeatedly, that he supports the Iranians in their quest for freedom.

On the other hand, he has at least temporarily taken what's called the "realist" view — that dealing with the present Tehran government is a safer bet than trying to get it changed.

Bush has thrown it a carrot, but it should be the last one. From here on, he should stick more consistently with the premise that the future of the Middle East lies with the people, not the dictators.