Bush on Iran: Not Effective

Peter Kohanloo, Iran Institute for Democracy:

In his second inaugural address, President George W. Bush boldly declared: “In a world moving toward liberty, we are determined to show the meaning and promise of liberty.”

This determination, most recently displayed in the successful examples of “people power” in Lebanon and Kyrgyzstan, gave a renewed sense of hope to the overwhelming majority of Iranians currently chafing at the tyrannical system of the Shia mullahs. The feeling of optimism grew even stronger after President Bush assured the Iranian people in his 2005 State of the Union address:

“… As you stand for your own liberty, America stands with you.”

Responding in part to the president's call, freedom-loving Iranians came out in large numbers to demonstrate against their corrupt, authoritarian masters on the occasion of Chahar-Shanbe-Souri (part of the celebration of the Iranian New Year). They chose this important day of the Persian calendar because it has roots in the pre-Islamic, Zoroastrian tradition of ancient Persia. In an ironic twist, Iranians have begun using such historically significant holidays to express discontent with the regime much as the Hezbollahis used Shia holidays for political gain during the last years of the Shah's reign.

The outpouring of frustration toward the clerical regime was interesting, not because it actually happened, but because of what was said that night. According to IranPressNews:

“In another area of the city [Tehran] people took to setting the French flag on fire while chanting: ‘Europe is finished and so are their mullahs' or ‘Bush, Bush, where is Bush?'…”

The protestors brought up a very good question indeed. Just where is President Bush these days? And will he finally support Iranians in their struggle for freedom? Though the president hinted at a change in policy at the beginning of this year, his administration's tough rhetoric soon gave way to the same old strategy of supporting the negotiations between the Europeans and the Islamic Republic.

Some fear that the president's offer of WTO membership and Boeing jet spare parts will result in a deal with the turbaned despots. Others believe it is a political tactic intended to show the world that his administration tried all it could through diplomacy.

It is likely that Bush's approach will be closer to the latter than the former. A deal with the terrorist regime would mean the end of the Bush Doctrine and therefore the mission in Iraq. However, the overall lack of consistency in US policy toward Iran has been harmful because it sends mixed signals to those fighting for freedom in Iran. Few would want to seriously confront the mullahs and risk retaliation if the US is going to turn around and make friends with them.

President Bush needs not only to end support for these so-called negotiations, but also to make a firm commitment to Iranians by calling on the US Congress to allocate more money for this important struggle. As of now, only $3 million has been committed for the establishment of democracy in Iran. This figure is insulting. In 2004, the US government spent a little over $12 million solely on democracy programs in Kyrgyzstan, according to the US State Department. It spent even more during the previous year ($14.29 million). Kyrgyzstan, though an important country in Central Asia, does not even come close to Iran in terms of strategic importance. But we can already see the positive impact the financial aid likely had in that country. Without money to purchase communications equipment and to support labor strikes in key sectors, Iranians will continue having a difficult time mounting a successful, non-violent campaign.
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Finally, President Bush should use the bully pulpit of the presidency to provide the moral support Iranians need in the international arena. At the end of May, a convention for a national referendum on the Islamic Republic will be held in Europe. The convention will be hosting 32 active referendum committees, each comprising anywhere from 3 to 37 members. It is the result of a grass-roots effort involving hundreds of Iranians from 32 cities on three different continents (North America, Europe, Asia) and representing the entire political spectrum. The convention would receive a much-needed boost if the president publicly acknowledged their fine efforts for the cause of democracy in Iran.

So where will Bush be the next time Iranians stand for their liberty? Nobody really knows for sure. But we are all hoping that he will be standing behind a podium with the presidential seal, denouncing the mullahs as they flee Iran and congratulating Iranians for standing up to their oppressors.

Peter Kohanloo, master of International Studies, is finishing his internship with Michael Ledeen, Freedom Chair at the American Enterprise Institute, in Washington, DC.