Lebanon Pullout Major Blow for Syrian Regime

Weedah Hamzah, Kuwait Times:

The Syrian regime has suffered a serious blow by bowing to the UN demand to withdraw from Lebanon, although Damascus main aim is to improve its shaky relations with western countries, analysts say. Local analysts and Western diplomats claim Syria was greatly weakened by pulling out of Lebanon only after intense international pressure, rather than having withdrawn of its own accord. READ MORE

Damascus may now find itself having to bow to other demands, analysts say. "It is a heavy price and a serious blow for the Syrian regime, which a few months ago was the main arbiter of Lebanese political and economical life," said Sarkis Naoum, a political analyst. He added that a "new vision" has to be adopted by the Syrian regime towards its policies in Lebanon after the withdrawal. "The Syrians will now have to accept the sea of change prevailing in Lebanon and completely disengage its interference in the Lebanese internal affairs," he stressed.

A western diplomat in Beirut stressed that Syria had missed several chances of leaving Lebanon before mounting pressure from the western world forced it to make the choice. "The political approach the Syrian regime was using in Lebanon in the past five years turned into grave mistakes, such as staying in Lebanon after Israel ended its 22-year-old occupation of southern Lebanon," he said. Israel withdrew the bulk of its forces from Lebanon five years ago after repeated attacks by the pro-Iranian Hezbollah movement in southern Lebanon. "Had Syria left Lebanon then, it would never have been tempted to interfere in this country's day-to-day political affairs," the diplomat said.

Even Syria's closest allies, like former Lebanese Prime Minister Selim Hoss, agreed that Syria had only itself to blame for meddling "so intensely" in Lebanese affairs. Syria is hoping its withdrawal from Lebanon before the end of April and its effective implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 will improve its troubled relations with the West and gain the confidence of some European countries.

Resolution 1559, adopted last September by the international body, calls on all foreign troops to leave Lebanon. Syria maintained some 14,000 troops in Lebanon before its withdrawal started in March. Unsurprisingly, the February 14 assassination of former five-time premier Rafik Hariri in a massive explosion in Beirut sparked the sudden Syrian pullout. The Syrian decision followed forceful accusations by the Lebanese anti-Syrian opposition forces that the pro-Syrian regime in Lebanon and their Syrian masters" were responsible directly or indirectly for the crime.

Analysts said the Syrians and their allies in Beirut appeared to have been taken by surprise when Hariri's assassination unleashed widespread street protests demanding the immediate withdrawal of all Syrian troops from their country. This was helped by international pressure exerted on Syria by the United States, France and the UN "The Syrians are now very well aware that the eyes of the world are on them; thus, they will have to make other and new steps to prove their good intentions," the Western diplomat said. He insisted that the Syrian government was aware that European leaders would proceed with a planned association agreement with Syria modelled on others signed with Mediterranean littoral states, "only if they see a serious change in the political policies of the Syrian regime".

Syria will officially end its military presence in Lebanon after a ceremony on Tuesday in eastern Lebanon, prepared by the Lebanese army command to bid farewell to the last remaining Syrian military commanders. Syria entered Lebanon a year after the outbreak of Lebanese civil war in 1975, and has since maintained a close political and economical grip on Lebanon. Despite Damascus optimism that its withdrawal from Lebanon would ease the American-led pressure, analysts expect the Syrian regime will not rest for long, even after removing its power grip from Lebanon. They said the United States in particular, using its greater Middle East" plan for reforms in the Arab region, would likely unleash a new wave of pressure on Damascus to introduce political reforms at home.