Expert: Iran nukes replace old military

Stefan Nicola, United Press International:

Iran's military is focusing on asymmetric warfare and nuclear weapons because its conventional armed forces are outdated, a senior Middle East expert said Friday.

"Iran's main intents lie in two efforts: one is asymmetric warfare, and the other is weapons of mass destruction," said Anthony Cordesman, strategic analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a public policy think tank in Washington. READ MORE

Cordesman, author of "Iran's Developing Military Capabilities," a CSIS-sponsored report assessing Iran's armed forces, and a former high-ranking Pentagon official, also noted that in light of uncertainties about Iran's nuclear capabilities, a military strike on the Islamic republic would be "disastrous" and so a diplomatic approach is the way to go, even if that might not entirely stop Iran from pursuing a military alternative, he said. ...

Cordesman's remarks come just days before foreign ministers from France, Britain and Germany -- the so-called European Union 3 -- will meet Iranian officials to negotiate a permanent halt to Iran's already-suspended uranium enrichment program. The step is a key part of both civilian and military nuclear programs.

Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, the United States and much of the international community believe otherwise. Cordesman agreed.

"Much of the nuclear tests and development efforts in Iran simply make no sense as peaceful research," he said. "I'm almost certain there is a nuclear weapons program now."

Iran's expensive long-range missile program wouldn't be financially feasible "unless you put a nuclear warhead on it," he said.

Speculation about Iran's nuclear capabilities often stretches far from reality, Cordesman said. When observing international intelligence, Iran still is "a significant distance from a meaningful missile and a nuclear capability," he added.

In light of a lack of a credible threat, diplomacy is probably the best way to go, he added.

"If the Europeans' negotiations do nothing more than keep Iran from being overt in deploying and testing, they have accomplished a great deal," Cordesman said.

So far, financial incentives for Iran to give up its uranium enrichment program are lacking, he said. ...

Although China - a permanent, veto-wielding member of the Security Council -- has signaled it will veto drastic sanctions against Iran in absence of a direct threat, the situation might radically change if U.S. intelligence "would find a smoking gun," Cordesman said. So far, there is no clear evidence Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program.

That's why the U.S. administration should continue to push for intelligence-gathering in Iran, no matter how intrusive that might be, Cordesman said.

"If it bothers the Iranians, so be it," he said. "It's a matter of life. It's too important."

Asymmetric warfare -- featuring highly mobile guerilla troops and hit-and-run attacks -- is thought to be the most effective way to attack a superior military power such as the United States. Iran has about 120,000 people in the revolutionary guards, a force that could deploy asymmetrical warfare in the Middle East, Cordesman said.

"These are pretty capable forces," Cordesman said. "They could very quickly move large numbers of people to a country like Bahrain."

But while Iran's nuclear enrichment programs and its capabilities for asymmetric warfare pose a threat to stability in the Middle East, its conventional military systems in army, navy and air force are "obsolescent," Cordesman said.

In the light of slow modernization of planes, tanks and missile system, which are mostly from the mid-1970s, Iran's capability of a conventional military strike is severely limited, Cordesman said.

"They have a 340,000-men army, but 220,000 of them are 18-months-conscripts," Cordesman said. "Its artillery is old and worn ... and its 1,600 tanks and about 300 airplanes are outdated even by Middle Eastern standards."

Wayne White, a Middle East expert at the Middle East Institute, said Friday in a telephone interview there are incentives for Iran to pursue independent weapon systems.

"Most of Iran's conventional weapons were taken away by Iraq in the last stages of the Iran-Iraq war," he said. "Renewing basic military forces is extremely expensive -- we're talking billions of dollars."