Iran to Deliver a Missile Blow to Azerbaijan

Asim Oku, AIA Turkish and Caucasian section:

In case of Baku's consent to the accommodation of American military bases in the republic, Iran plans to deliver a preventive missile strike on the territory of Azerbaijan, Jelal Muhammedi, a confidant of the new Iranian leader, said in his interview to the Azerbaijan newspaper, "Mirror". Muhammedi, being an ethnic Azerbaijanian, in the past held the post of editor-in-chief of the Iranian periodical, "Misag" (Tabriz), and is known for his close connections with authorities.

During the elections, he actively supported Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. READ MORE

The new president of Iran worked in the local authorities of Iranian Azerbaijan in the 1990s. At that time he got acquainted with one of the most outstanding journalists of this region, Muhammedi. Jelal, at that time played and today continues to play a rather active role in the formation of Iranian policy concerning Azerbaijan. Especially, he has proved himself adept at secret relations between Tehran and the representatives of the intellectual elite of Baku, and, primarily, with journalists.

It is highly probable that after Ahmadinejad's election, Muhammedi may become one of the key figures in formulating Tehran's policy towards Azerbaijan.

Muhammedi claims that a sharp deterioration of Iran-Azerbaijan attitudes may occur in the near future for two reasons: accommodation of the US military bases in Azerbaijan and support by Baku of separatist moods in Iranian Azerbaijan.

Muhammedi emphasized that in both cases Tehran is capable of taking not only adequate reciprocal measures, but also may be drawn to actions of a preventive character.

En Route to Baku

What might be the Iranian reaction to Ilham Aliev's consent to place a US military contingent in the republic was mentioned above. Speaking about the destructive consequences of a missile blow, Muhammedi suggested imagining "how Baku will look after two missiles strike the area". He has no doubt that the missiles will reach their target in case of the conflict, and such confidence is not baseless at all. Tehran's military is much stronger then Baku's on each and every parameter.

An extensive missile arsenal and several hundreds of warplanes allow Iran to deal a blazing air blow on the large cities of Azerbaijan.

A common border, and the complete lack of any efficient system of antimissile and antiaircraft defense of the Azerbaijan army eases this task substantially. Moreover, judging by the equipment, staff, and level of preparation, the Air Forces of the Azeri republic are incapable of withstanding the Iranians. The common 611 km long border, allows Iran to subject the southern areas of Azerbaijan to massive artillery bombardments.

In case of escalation of the conflict up to ground forces collisions, Baku also has no chance to resist. By the numbers, the Iranian Army and Pasdaran (not even counting the National Guard - Basij Resistance Forces) considerably surpass the Azerbaijanian armed forces (more than 900 thousand Iranian soldiers against 72 thousand Azeri). Also, Iranians are equipped much better technically then Azerbaijanians. The supreme command structure of the Iranian Army and Pasdaran has a rich operative experience acquired in the war with Iraq. As for Azerbaijanian officers, they proved themselves inadequate during the conflict with Armenia at the beginning of the nineties.

The strategic arrangement of forces in the Southern Caucasus and around the Caspian Sea also is adverse for Baku. Aliev has no close ally with appreciable military potential in the region. But Tehran holds close relations with Armenia. In case the conflict breaks out, Tehran can be expected to grip Azerbaijan in a "vise " from the Southeastern, Southwestern and Western directions. Yerevan does not have to conduct any military actions; it is enough to increase the concentration of its armies on the Azerbaijan border.

Counting upon the above listed strategic factors, experts on the Caucasus consider that given several days, the Iranians would manage not only to suppress the resistance of the Azerbaijan army completely, but also reach the capital of the republic. and parameter,However, any such scenarios are purely theoretical. Baku, certainly, concedes to Tehran on every issue but is protected by Ankara and Washington. Even if Iran would decide to strike Azerbaijan (which is improbable) the Americans would instantly interfere in the course of events. Though the leadership of the Azeri republic constantly increases its military expenditure (by the official data from about $74 million in 1997 up to $300 million in 2005) the true and only guarantor of Baku's security and safety is the United States. Accordingly, any "preventive measures" by Tehran may only provoke the Iranian-American conflict, which in turn is fraught with the most unpredictable consequences, not only for its participants, but also for the countries of the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East.