Tehran’s Shock at the IAEA’s Resolution

Rooz Online:

While Ali Larijani, Iran’s chief negotiator at the Vienna’s IAEA talks tried to compare the nuclear issue to Iran’s nationalization of its oil company in early 50s – an effort to win over nationalists in the country- many within the government and its hardline supporters outside have not yet reached a consensus on how to deal with the IAEA’s warning to Iran.

While the Parliament, the government and the right wing media have all supported the idea of lowering relations with the states that voted for the IAEA resolution against Iran last Saturday, there are also some supporters who have left the door open for Iran to return to the negotiating table, where it can get better results.

When the new team of negotiators came together, they accused the old guard of being lazy, incompetent and weak. MP Saeed Abutaleb who is amongst the staunchest hardliners from Abadgaran group even goes as far as accusing the former team for the current failures, adding that “it was clear that talks with the three European countries would not end in our interest. We should have stood hard from day one. We have now wasted two years of our time.”

These statements come despite the fact that most of the countries on which Iran depended, either supported the IAEA resolution or abstained from voting, which shocked government officials. India, for example, despite getting huge concessions over its acquisition of natural gas from Iran, and even China which had only recently signed the largest commercial agreement ever with Iran that guarantees it oil for the next twenty years, did not support Iran in Vienna. While Javad Vaeedi, the spokesperson for the Iranian negotiating team announced that the twelve abstentions and one negative vote for IAEA’s resolution indicated the “deep divisions with the body”, demonstrating his satisfaction, the reality of the matter was that one should not pin its hopes on such divisions.

Reza Taghizadeh, an Iranian professor of international relations at Glasgow University put it succinctly when he said that “the vote was undoubtedly a diplomatic failure for Iran. The issue is not whether there was a consensus or not at the IAEA. If Iran lowers its expectations to the point where the absence of a consensus is a victory, it only shows its shortcomings and underestimating the Iranian public.” READ MORE

Iran’s Foreign Minister Manoutchehr Mottaki accused the Europeans of implementing US’s plans. This is while India, which Ali Larijani had earlier said completely supported Iran’s nuclear approach, publicly said after the vote that it was under no US pressure to vote either way and did not believe the vote would change its economic relations with Iran.

Unfortunately the changed positions of India and China has not till now altered the views of some Iranian officials who believe that oil is an instrument that can be used to shape the foreign behavior of some countries. Saeed Abutaleb, an MP says “we have no problems in the economic sphere as they need our oil.”

In any case, the National Security committee of the Parliament discussed this issue two days ago. Javad Jahangirzadeh, one of its members confirmed this, which may explain why Larijani has been summoned to appear to the Parliament. Interestingly, Kayhan newspaper has criticized everybody since the IAEA resolution, even the Majlis (Parliament), accusing all of not understanding the real circumstances. Its editor Shariatmadari who is a well known hardliner, once again called for withdrawal from the NPT.

Larijani’s summons to the Parliament follows a resolution passed by 170 MPS that call on the government to end its suspension of the IAEA inspections protocols. Mir Tajeddini, a member of the cultural committee who signed the Majlis resolution said “with this draft, IAEA’s additional protocols will be suspended because of European inaction vis-à-vis Iran’s good will gestures.”

Most of the signatories of the Majlis resolution angrily called for a reduction in the diplomatic relations with Western governments. The only words of caution came from Mohammad Khoshchehreh who said a final decision on this should be made after consultations with the Majlis committee on National Security and Foreign Policy. This committee plans to discuss the issue shortly.

The three European countries – France, Britain and Germany – remain the prime targets of the anger of Iranian officials. Some MPs have called on the Iranian government to withdraw its ambassadors from their capitals. MP Servati even called for a complete reevaluation of all relations with the countries that voted against Iran. Again, Khoshchehreh came out as the only voice of some reason, calling for caution and patience, and a calm review of the events and future course of action. “The Majlis needs a realistic assessment of what took place, something we have not yet received,” he said. When asked about the reduction of economic relations with these countries, he again said Iran must look at its interests and mutual interests. Khoshchehreh who is a former university professor and economic specialist, advises his colleagues not to use such terms as “win-win”, “loose-loose” or even “win” and “lose” in international affairs. These terms were initially introduced into Iranian lexicons by a reformist writer but have been recently widely used by Ali Larijani who said Europe should not be after a “win-loose” scenario.

In any case, there are those even MPs who argue that the Iranian negotiators should have the signals around them more carefully before attending the formal sessions. The absence of such observations, they say, demonstrates their inexperience in international affairs. Heshmatollah Falahatpishe, another member of the National Security and Foreign Policy committee of the Majlis says “Ahmadinejad’s government is weak in consulting with others, which was demonstrated in the way he chose his cabinet ministers. He did not even have sufficient consultations for a trip as important as the one to New York. Majlis’ teams are not weaker than the governments if not as strong.”

A political observer has told Rooz that while the Iranian negotiations team had put its hopes in the differences among the IAEA governing board members, there is now a division of opinion within the government that makes future decisions in this and on other issues more difficult to reach.