Enrichment in Iran or Russia?

Rooz Online:

The spring session of the governing board of the IAEA met last week and decided to postpone its decision on Iran’s nuclear dossier for another 100 days. In its final communiqué, the IAEA calls this the last window of opportunity for Iran. Others have called the period between now and mid-March as the “final chance” for Iran.

This session ends in Vienna at a time when Iran’s nuclear issue has been in the news for quite some time now. Soon after coming to power, the new hardline government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad decided to change course in its approach with the West and the IAEA over the nuclear issue and hardened its position, ending Iran’s voluntary suspension of enrichment activities and taking a confrontational posture against those calling for it to engage in confidence-building measures to demonstrate its claim of peaceful use of nuclear energy.

The Iranian people learned of the latest developments in Vienna primarily through international news outlets as the Iranian press has been instructed not to publish news about the country nuclear dossier because of the sensitive nature of the event. READ MORE

According to Le Figaro IAEA inspectors had been given some leeway in their work and had recently inspected a military base and interviewed two nuclear officials. This was first for Iran. The international media also reported that US officials had obtained a laptop that contained detailed and highly secret information regarding Iran’s nuclear program, and specifically items relating to the design of a nuclear warhead. This information was passed on to the IAEA. Iran initially denied the report but later said the information in it had little intelligence value. The IAEA communiqué makes a reference to this newly obtained data.

Another event that relates to the issue are the four trips that took place recently. First was former president Mohammad Khatami’s unofficial trip to Germany where he met German officials and held talks with them. Then Jalal Talebani, Iraq’s new president visited Iran for the first time and was said to carry a “special” message to Iranian leaders. The third trip was that of Igor Ivanov, the Russian Security Council Secretary, and the last one belonged to a representative from the non-Aligned Movement. While Tehran was the focus of the trips and attention, London too was the scene of a non-official meeting in this regard. According to Sharg newspaper, officials from Britain, France, Germany, South Africa, India and Malaysia, along with Russia, the United States and China participated in these informal talks. This was a meeting of the permanent members of the UN Security Council and the powerful non-Aligned Movement. One may safely assume that whatever Ivanov, Talibani and the non-Aligned representatives learned in Tehran was raised at the meeting. Europeans too are reported to have shared the contents of Ali Larijani’s letter in which he extends Iran’s interest in the resumption the nuclear talks with the Europeans. According to Sharg, the meeting decided to pursue exploring the Russian option, i.e. an arrangement where Iran domestically pursues part of the nuclear conversion process, while actual enrichment is carried out in Russia, and discuss this with Tehran.

Following these meetings, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stated that the US could send Iran to the UN Security Council at any time. The US seems to go along with the new Russian option who along with president Putin confirmed this on his visit to Moscow. And this while the US DOS spokesperson called this the last chance for Iran.

Iranian officials, on the other hand, have kept a complete silence on the Russian option. Initially they rejected it altogether, until Hamid-Reza Asefi, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said that he had not received a written proposal on the subject.
The IAEA communiqué lead to two responses in Tehran. Some right-wing deputies in the Majlis (Iran's Parliament) proclaimed it a victory for Ahmadinejad’s administration, while newspapers and political analysts basically viewed the event as sign that the West was approaching a uniform policy towards the issue and Iran.

Perhaps Britain’s representative at the European Union, which it now leads, set the perspective when he said that while the IAEA has postponed a decision, Iran should not doubt that the IAEA may still send its case to the US Security Council.

Ghodratollah Alikhani, a Majlis deputy who is a member of the National Security Council and Foreign Relations Committee said in this regard that with all said and done, Iran must still return to the negotiating table with the three European countries. “We must reach some agreement over their plan which has also been accepted by Russia and the United States,” he said. According to Sharg newspaper, the United States is slowly bringing the other parties and players in the game together so that if Tehran does not play with the rules, then the coalition would be in place for other actions.