Emerging Shift in Israel's Iran Policy

Stratfor:

Various Israeli officials issued statements on Thursday regarding the Jewish state's position on Iran's nuclear program. Israeli leaders issuing statements about the need to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear technology is a routine affair. The remarks, however, were not routine warnings about the threat posed by a radical Shiite Islamist state. Instead, the Israeli government dropped more hints pointing to an emerging shift in its Iran policy. READ MORE

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, along with several other senior members of his government, has long said that Israel would not act unilaterally to prevent the clerical regime from completing the nuclear fuel cycle, and would leave the matter in the hands of the U.S.-led international community. Other less-senior security and intelligence officials have in the recent past even posited the idea that Israel could live with a nuclear Iran.

On Thursday, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, talking to Israeli Army Radio, said that the international community should move ahead with diplomatic efforts to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, but Mofaz denied that Israel is considering attacking the Islamic republic's nuclear facilities. Sharon told journalists in Tel Aviv that the country is preparing for the day when Iran acquires nuclear weapons. He also rejected reports that the Jewish state is leading a campaign against Iranian nuclear ambitions.

These remarks were preceded by a report in the daily newspaper Maariv, which quoted a senior security source as saying, "We shall have to put up with a nuclear Iran." The unnamed source added that, "I do not see any force in the world today that could reverse the situation -- namely Iran becoming nuclear ... and there will be no alternative but to put up with the emerging situation."

These three statements follow comments by the country's military intelligence chief, Maj. Gen. Aharon Zeevi-Farkash, who in addressing the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Nov. 30 said that time was running out on efforts to diplomatically thwart Iran from obtaining nuclear technology.

The Israelis clearly want to keep the Iranians guessing about their true intentions, which would explain the different statements -- especially in the wake of the rise to power of the ultraconservative faction in Tehran, and particularly given the recent remarks of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad about wiping Israel off the map.

The Israeli statements also have to do with domestic Israeli politics. With elections approaching, Sharon, who quit the far-right Likud party to form the new Kadima party -- a group dominated by pragmatic conservatives -- has to address the Iranian nuclear issue in a way that resonates with the electorate. Even though polls show him leading the race by a decent margin, he would not want his rivals within Likud -- who are already accusing him of gambling with Israel's security because of his decision to withdraw from the Palestinian territories -- to paint him as also having gone soft on Tehran's nukes.

Sharon is trying to reassure Israeli voters that he is not about to allow Iran to develop the means to threaten the Jewish state -- but his choice of words also suggests that he does not want to upset the U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to reach a deal with Iran that would deny it the means to weaponize nuclear technology. Saying that on the one hand Israel cannot accept a nuclear Iran, but that on the other hand it will not act to thwart Tehran from pursuing its nuclear objectives, could mean that Israel will enhance its own conventional and nuclear capabilities to serve as a deterrent against a future nuclear-armed Iran.

But this is not something that Israel would want to point out, for reasons having to do with both domestic and foreign policy concerns. This would explain the ambiguity in the statements issued by Israeli leaders on how they would deal with the Iranian nuclear threat. It would also explain the statement issued by the anonymous but senior defense official. Regardless of how the Israelis actually would act, they have begun hinting that there could be circumstances under which they could live with a nuclear-armed Iran.