Saturday, December 17, 2005

Will Allies Harden Stance on Iran?

Gerlad F. Seib and Carla Anne Robbins, The Wall Street Journal:
For months, the U.S. has been trying to convince Iran that international patience with its nuclear program is running out. Next week, Iran may see just how true that is.

Iran meets Wednesday with America's three main European allies, France, Britain and Germany, for a showdown over the Iranians' nuclear program. Diplomats predict the session will almost certainly end in rancor. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad darkened the atmosphere ahead of the talks last week with his statement that the Holocaust is a "myth," only the latest of his declarations to raise international hackles.

For their part, France and Britain have been preparing to circulate to world powers preliminary language for a diplomatic statement suggesting that the Iranians are secretly pursuing a nuclear weapon. The document, which would be presented to Iran on behalf of all five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, would question whether Iran is living up to its commitments under the nuclear-nonproliferation treaty, which calls on states without nuclear arms to refrain from receiving "nuclear weapons or ... any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons.'' READ MORE

The document also would call on Iran to cooperate more with the U.N.'s nuclear-watchdog agency to resolve questions about the country's behavior. The U.S. has reviewed the document, and will support it. If Russia and China sign on, that would send Tehran a clear message that it can no longer depend on those countries for protection from international rebukes, as in the past. And it would mark a significant step forward in the American campaign to bring concerns about Iran to the Security Council for possible punishment.

Iran pulled out of negotiations last summer over Western demands for curbs on its nuclear activities, and soon resumed converting uranium into gas -- a first step toward production of nuclear fuel for either a power plant or a weapon.

Last month, a report from U.N. nuclear inspectors said that Tehran had admitted receiving information from the nuclear black-market network of Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan on how to cast uranium into a shape usable for a nuclear weapon.

But there's no guarantee the talks next week will produce a tougher, unified international stand. By working together on the new diplomatic protest to Iran, Britain and France are illustrating that they want to take a harder line, though not quite as hard as the U.S. would like. Germany has in the past been the least willing of the partners to confront Iran, and its posture isn't yet as clear. If the Europeans and Americans aren't united, it could be harder to persuade China and Russia to go along with a tougher posture toward Tehran.

Write to Gerald F. Seib at jerry.seib@wsj.com and Carla Anne Robbins at carla.robbins@wsj.com