Ahmadinejad's Nuclear Gamble

The Economist:

Eliciting international criticism, Iran this week said it will resume nuclear research, perhaps on January 9th. America and others say the Islamic country is developing a covert nuclear weapons programme and the UN’s nuclear watchdog is growing increasingly exasperated. Iran’s fiery president seems set on confrontation that will provoke diplomatic sanctions, or worse. READ MORE

IRAN’S president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is not one to speak quietly. He opposes compromise with western countries. He has replaced many moderate diplomats with hardliners. This month he told a gathering of lawmakers that any policy of détente is not in Iran’s best interests. He fulminates against Israel with almost clockwork regularity. Meeting Muslim clerics in the holy city of Qom this week, he willed the early death of Ariel Sharon, after the Israeli leader suffered a massive stroke. Previously he called Israel a “tumour” and suggested it should be wiped “off the map” or else reconstituted in Europe. In December he called the Holocaust a “myth”, stirring up wide international criticism.

Nor does Mr Ahmadinejad tread lightly in the sensitive arena of nuclear diplomacy. This week Iran sent a note to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, saying it would resume research into nuclear fuel after a suspension of more than two years. That promptly brought stern statements from governments in Europe and America, where few doubt Iran uses its civilian atomic energy efforts as a cover for a nuclear weapons programme. Western suspicions are based on Iran’s record of hiding nuclear work from IAEA inspectors for 18 years until discovered in 2003.

By restarting such research (one report said the scientists will be back in their labs on Monday January 9th) Iran would scupper negotiations for a solution to the nuclear impasse, said French, German and other diplomats. A British statement called the decision “provocative”. But Ali Larijani, the senior Iranian official in charge of nuclear issues, says the decision to resume the research is non-negotiable. Mr Ahmadinejad added on Thursday that “the Iranian nation and government will defend the right to nuclear research and technology and will go forward prudently.”

Though not particularly prudently, it seems. Iran had claimed it would keep the IAEA closely informed of the details of the renewed research. To that end, a delegation from Tehran was supposed to meet the IAEA’s boss, Mohamed ElBaradei, in Vienna on Thursday. But with no explanation, the Iranian team failed to turn up. Mr ElBaradei—winner of last year’s Nobel peace prize and usually a cool figure—is said to be exasperated by Iran’s behaviour. Earlier this week he warned Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA that the country should not proceed with its “regrettable” decision to restart research. The hardline actions of Mr Ahmadinejad are aggravating an already tense situation.

The likelihood of diplomatic confrontation has been growing for months. Iran resumed production of uranium gas in August, to European and American disapproval. Then it announced plans to enrich the gas in centrifuge machines at a pilot plant in Natanz. Officially this would be used for reactor fuel for domestic energy plants, though many suspect it would be for bombs instead. Russia offered a compromise that would give the IAEA more time to monitor what is happening in Iran, by volunteering to enrich the gas Iran produces on its behalf. But Iran appears to have spurned that suggestion. A delegation led by Russia’s deputy foreign minister is due in Tehran this weekend, but few expect a breakthrough.

Worried observers ask where all this is going. Iran’s case could soon be referred to the UN’s Security Council, where sanctions—diplomatic or economic—may be proposed. Israel worries that Iran could have usable weapons within months. Information seems to be accruing that Iran is up to no good. A British newspaper, the Guardian, this week said European intelligence agencies had produced a lengthy report that fingered Iran (and other would-be nuclear powers) for running a network of traders, phoney companies, state institutions and diplomatic missions to procure the means to develop chemical, biological, nuclear and conventional weapons. Iran is said to be especially active in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia as it tries to develop “very ambitious” missile programmes. The European spies suggested that 16 Russian firms and academic institutes are helping—and profiting from—the Iranian military effort.

Much seems now to depend on the belligerent Mr Ahmadinejad, who feels he has a mission to reject the West’s “frail civilisation” and instead, with Iran’s bumper oil revenues, build a “model Islamic” country. Though he does not enjoy unanimous support at home, he is backed by the hardline Revolutionary Guard—the same institution that America and its allies suspect of using a civilian nuclear programme as cover to build a bomb. The Guard wields much influence on Iran’s behalf in next-door Iraq, and could stir up more trouble there for America if the superpower were ever to threaten to clobber Iran’s nuclear facilities. Abroad, Mr Ahmadinejad seems to rely on tacit support in the Security Council from China and Russia, and may hope that his noisy outbursts against Israel will raise Iran’s standing in the Arab world.