Strategic Survey 2004/2005

John Chipman, International Institute of Strategic Studies:

Non-Proliferation and Iran

Prospects that the current negotiations between the EU-3 (UK, France, Germany) and Iran will produce a lasting resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue are not encouraging. READ MORE

Faced with the threat of referral to the UN Security Council, Iran has ‘temporarily’ suspended its enrichment-related activities since November 2004. At the same time, Iranian officials across the political spectrum have categorically rejected the EU-3 demand that Iran permanently abandon its enrichment programme. Instead, Tehran has repeatedly threatened to begin lifting elements of the suspension, most recently to resume production of feed material for enrichment. For their part, however, the Europeans appear determined that Iran end enrichment completely. They are not tempted by Iran’s proposal that it be allowed to develop a limited enrichment capability under strict international inspection. To back up their demands, the Europeans have vowed to work with Washington to refer Iran to New York if any part of the suspension is violated.

Thus, the EU-3-Iran talks seem headed for inevitable failure – whether before or after the Iranian elections in June. Nonetheless, Tehran has repeatedly shied away from a confrontation with the UN Security Council and the risk that political isolation and economic sanctions could weaken domestic support for the government or even create the basis for military attack. If this caution continues, Tehran may be willing to tolerate the talks (and the suspension) for the time being, until it feels strong enough to resume its enrichment programme, despite the threat of Security Council action. Even if it abandons the suspension, however, Iran is still several years away from achieving an enrichment capability sufficient to execute a political decision to acquire nuclear weapons. Rather than leave the NPT and expel international inspectors, which would invite strong Security Council action, Iran may continue to observe the NPT and allow international inspection, in hopes of tempering international reaction, while it slowly accumulates stocks of nuclear material and enrichment capability for a quick break- out option.

Indeed, it is this concern that inspires the US to call not just for cessation, but also for disarmament. The best hope is that during this drawn out period, diplomatic efforts continue, even if the current EU3 effort collapses.

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