Who is behind the recent bomb blasts?

Windsteed, Iran Votes 2005: an Iranian blogger.

I posted the following yesterday morning (before the explosions) but then removed in order to make further verifications. However, in the light of yesterday's blasts in Tehran and Ahwas, I think it is worth re-publishing it.

The hardliners (Ossulgarayan) are deliberating on how to reach on an agreement on a single, or ultimately two candidates. It is very much likely that Ahmadi Nejad and Rezai pull out of the competition by Tuesday this week. In the meanwhile, exterimist factions in the camp of Ossulgarayan have already started contemplating on possible post-election strategies. Almost certain that Moeen has little chance to attract a high number of votes, now their main concern is how to deal with Rafsanjani.

There have been propositions that, should Rafsanjani win sufficinet votes in the first round to become president, attempt should be made to cause instability and unrest. The proponents of this strategy argue such a rioting shall be provoked in the first place by using Hezbollahi militias and Ansar. They anticipate that the rioting will soon spread as a large number of the public, who are generally unhappy with the regime will also join in. Here, the plan goes, the hardliners should take utmost advantage of their control over Sepah, the Police, as well as the militia. These forces shall not make any attempt to control to stop (perhaps only contain) the riots so that the country will end up in a chaos. READ MORE

Under such circumstances, it is hoped, Rafsanjani would step down, which would then enable Khamenei to invoke Artilce 131 of the Constitution to order a new election - of course without Rafsanjani. But some argue that this plan can better work whenRafsanjani has officially taken office.

Their argument is based on the presumption that, should Rafsanjani seem to be unable to control the unrest- which in their opinion will be the case - then the Majlis, controlled by a hardliner majority, can easily ask the Leader to exercise his power under Articles 89 and 110 of the Constitution and remove him from the office .

Neither of the propositions has yet gained a wide acceptance among Ossulgaras, due to the fear that an unrest may lead to mass uprising which may get out of control and ultimately lead to regime change. In any event, they show how desparate the hardliners are getting to get their hand on to the post they have been deprived of for the past sixteen years.

An interesting perspective.