IAEA Resolution is a Poor Outcome for EU Diplomacy

The Guardian:

The Iranian government has had a good seven days. At first glance, a resolution passed yesterday by the International Atomic Energy Authority, the Vienna-based United Nations watchdog on nuclear proliferation, looks like a poor outcome for Tehran. It expresses "serious concern" about Iran's resumption this week of its uranium conversion process. In reality, the resolution is as good an outcome as Iran could have hoped for. On Saturday Iran rejected a European package of compromises and on Monday, defying the west, it restarted the uranium conversion process at Isfahan. In spite of threats from the US and the European trio of Britain, France and Germany, there is no punitive action. Nor does the resolution mention sending the Iran issue to the security council for imposition of economic sanctions. READ MORE

The resolution is a poor outcome for European diplomacy. Two years ago, the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany flew to Tehran to persuade Iran to freeze its uranium enrichment programme, amid suspicion that Iran's ultimate ambition was to build a nuclear weapon. It was the first big test of European foreign policy, an opportunity for the trio to demonstrate they could tackle the big issues independently of the US, a chance to contrast the benefits of "soft power" with the US neo-conservatives' preference for confrontation.

The outcome has been two unedifying days in Vienna, with bad-tempered exchanges on both the European and Iranian sides. The Europeans, in what now looks like a tactical error, called the emergency meeting of the 35-member IAEA board, only to find little enthusiasm among at least half of the members for taking on Iran or for a referral to the security council, in part because Iran has not breached any treaty obligations.

Vienna has demonstrated the limits of European policy, exposing its lack of influence over Iran. The prospect of a trade agreement with Iran has not proved to be enough; but nor has the threat of UN economic sanctions. The hope remains that Iran, negotiating from a position of strength, its national pride intact, may yet opt for a compromise. Tehran said this week it would like to keep negotiations going. That is encouraging. It has been brave and right for the Europeans to try the diplomatic route and, in spite of the disappointments of the last week, they must keep on trying. That is preferable to another Iraq-style international crisis and the danger either of a US or Israeli air strike against Iranian nuclear installations, or of Iran announcing one day that it has the bomb.