Background on the UN Nuclear Watchdog Meeting on Iran

Louis Charbonneau, Reuters:

The U.N.'s nuclear watchdog was due to vote on Saturday on an EU resolution requiring Iran to be reported to the Security Council over what the West fears is a covert atomic weapons program. Despite Iranian threats to begin enriching uranium if the resolution that could eventually lead to sanctions against the Islamic country is passed, the EU's top powers and Washington were confident it would be approved.

The meeting, which is due to begin at 1300 GMT, has widened the split between rich Western nations and poorer developing nations led by Russia, China, India and South Africa, which disagree with Washington and Europe on how to deal with Iran.

And diplomats said there was a possibility that Russia, China and other non-aligned members of the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) 35-nation board might not show. The meeting needs two-thirds of the members present for a quorum.

But most said the simple majority needed for approval should be reached. READ MORE

"We have a majority of votes, but no consensus. We tried to win over Russia, but did not succeed," an EU diplomat said. "Most likely they will vote against it."

Iran denies seeking atomic bombs and says its nuclear program is only for generating electricity. However, it concealed its atomic fuel program from the IAEA for 18 years.

Russia, which is building a billion nuclear reactor at Bushehr in Iran and has much to gain from Iran's plans to develop atomic energy, is a fierce opponent of referring Iran's program to the Security Council.

China, which needs Iran's vast energy resources for its own booming economy, also opposes the Western drive against Iran.

Both countries fear a U.N. referral will cause the standoff over Iran's program to escalate into an international crisis.

"FAILURES AND BREACHES"

The EU resolution requires Tehran to be reported to the Security Council, but at an unspecified date -- watering down an earlier demand from the Europeans for an immediate referral.

This means Iran would most likely not be referred to the Council until the IAEA board meets in November, diplomats say.

The resolution, which diplomats said was prepared in close consultation with Washington, said Iran's "many failures and breaches" of its nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Safeguards Agreement "constitute non-compliance" with the pact.

It added there was an "absence of confidence" that Iran's atomic program was exclusively peaceful and this gave rise to questions "within the competence of the Security Council".

For two years, the EU's three biggest powers -- France, Britain and Germany -- have tried to persuade Iran that it needed to abandon its enriched uranium fuel program to convince the world that its atomic ambitions are peaceful.

Last month, the talks collapsed after Tehran resumed uranium processing and rejected an EU offer of economic and political incentives if it scrapped its uranium enrichment program, prompting the EU trio to join Washington in calling for the case to be sent to the Security Council.

Tehran has threatened to retaliate.

On Friday, diplomats said the Iranian delegation had been showing some board members and IAEA general director, Mohamed ElBaradei, two unsigned letters informing the IAEA what would happen if the EU resolution is approved.

One letter said that Iran would begin enriching uranium, a process that produces fuel for atomic power plants or weapons, at an underground facility at Natanz. The second says Tehran would end short-notice inspections under a special NPT protocol.

The head of South Africa's delegation, Abdul Minty, said he did not like the EU resolution. However, he also hoped Tehran would not limit U.N. inspections in any way.

"We hope they don't do it," Minty told Reuters. "It's very important that the agency is there on the ground."