Iran Taken on a War Path

Iranian blogger, Arash Motamed, Rooz Online:

With the performance of Iran’s UN delegation in New York, Iranian political circles inside and outside the country now have more reason for concern. Ahmadinejad spoke of combat at the UN and shut the door to “politics” while Larijani has appointed hardliners as negotiators over the nuclear issue. Both issues are interpreted in Iranian political analysts to mean one thing: Ahmadinejad and Larijani are taking the country towards war.

Observers note that concerns over the policies of the Mesbah Yazdi – Ahmadinejad – Larijani team were first raised at the highest political level in Iran but were soon shared by politicians and observers inside and outside the country.

One Iranian official close to senior leadership of the country told Rooz that the basis for this concern lies in the views of Mesbah Yazdi, Guardian Council, and Ahmadinejad which is closely tied to some of the former leaders of the Passdaran Revolutionary Guards. “The roots of this lies in the presence of Hojatieh group members at the top of Iran’s political structure”, he has said. This official has said that of the two parts to this group, its political side has taken control of the executive branch of the government, which is supported by the Guardians Council and some former Passdaran commanders. He points out to the policy of “isolation and silence” of this movement.

Isolation refers to isolating the leadership and separating Karoubi, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Khatami, Nategh Nouri and Hassan Rohani from decision making. These are moderate politicians who have had a moderating influence on Iranian politics in the past. Silencing is referred to pushing certain politicians to not express their opinions and not engage in political activities. Examples of those who have been subjected to this are Mosuvai Khoenina and former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi.

There are now reliable reports that steps are being taken to change this situation from the “top”. It is known that the leader meets individually with Khatami and Rafsanjani at least once a week and consults with them over national issues. These meetings have not resulted in their silence but on the contrary have made them even more vocal and active. Hashemi Rafsanjani’s trip to Mashad and then to Saudi Arabia, public and open criticism of the Passdaran and the government are examples of the success of measures to challenge the policy of isolation and silence. The creation of a moderation front, the reactivation of the Kargozaran Sazandegi party and the imminent publication of its newspaper, and even the return of Faeze Hashemi (Rafsanjani’s daughter who had been on the sidelines for some six years) are all measures that Rafsanjani has undertaken to neutralize the Hojatieh’s drive.

The unexpected appointment of Mohammad Bagher Galibaf as the Tehran’s mayor is a measure to counterbalance the “isolation and silence” movement. It should be noted that Galibaf was circumvented just two days before elections as the front runner for the hardliners. He is said to enjoy strong support from Rafsanjani. Those closely watching political maneuverings note that the details of the inauguration ceremonies for the new mayor were of a scope far larger than what is normally accorded to the mayor and smelled of well orchestrated national significance where politicians of all colors were present.

The Hojatieh group was initially born during the life of the Iranian monarchy and its primary purpose was to fight Bahaism, which mainstream Iranian clerics reject at all cost as a religious movement, portraying it as a political organization with strong foreign influence. But the Hojatieh soon found a new purpose, the formation of an Islamic state. As parts of its doctrine, it denounced fighting with the old guard and even opposed Khomeini. With the victory of Khomeini’s movement, many Hojatieh members left the group and joined Khomeini. But Khomeini never met its leader, sheikh Halabi and regularly warned of their danger.

Sazemane Mojahedin Engelab Islami group is where Hojatieh’s differences were mostly apparent. This is the very same organization that was the key architect in Iran’s revolutionary security and military institutions that were born after 1979. The main political division inside this group was between rightists and leftist. As they reached critical levels ayatollah Khomeini appointed ayatollah Rasti Kashani to resolve the issue. Kashani was a rightist himself with strong links to the Hojatieh. He supported the right wing elements. This lead to a split of the organization whose rightists such as Mohammad Bager Zolgadr eventually went to the Passdaran. These individuals who then joined other formal institutions in the country also formed underground cells, as had been their practice since inception. Their biggest success is said to be the proposal and victory of their presidential candidate. Khatami has called their movement the Iranian Taliban and has made warnings about their influence and drive to control events in the country. This very source declares that the ultimate goal of the Hojatieh is Majles Khobregan, the Experts Assembly, which determines who would be the leader. With that under its control, the group plans to remove the current leader and install Mesbah Yazdi, an extremist in the position.

On the foreign policy machinery of Iran, Hojatieh’s first step was to install Ali Larijani as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. His two other brothers already held important political posts: Sadegh has been a member of the Guardian’s Council and Mohammad Javad has been influential in foreign affairs. They also impacted the members of Iran’s negotiations team with the Europeans and the IAEA over Iran’s nuclear policy, turning it into a hardline body. Larijani’s deputy is no other than Mohammad Bagher Zolgadr. It is significant and no accident that both Larijani and foreign minister Manouchehr Motakei agree on eliminating Europe from Iran’s nuclear talks. Ahmadinejad too has concurred with this policy by ending the Paris accord that called for Iran’s suspension of nuclear enrichment activities and talks with Europe.

A former Iranian ambassador throws light on where Iran stands today by indicating that while Ahmadinejad’s team removed Europe from the talks, it did not succeed in replacing it with any other country or block, thus paving the way for the case to go to the UN Security Council, where it is now heading.

While the previous negotiations team acknowledged, after irrefutable documentation and pressure that the Islamic Republic had been secretly engaged in improper nuclear activities, Larijani has rejected such notions, thus ending the little trust that was being built with the world community.

Observers note that with the North Korean agreement, Iran now remains the only member of axis of evil challenging the West. It is perhaps in this light that Aftab website which is close to Jamiate Isargaran (Islamic Revolution Devotees’ Society) which had endorsed Galibaf as the presidential candidate claims that US president Bush has forwarded the missile attack on Iran to NATO. READ MORE

And as the IAEA began its discussion on Iran, Larijani threw in another threat to withdraw from the NPT should Iran be referred to the UN Security Council.