Pressure on Putin to Help Halt Iran's Nuclear Drive

Andrew Beatty, European Voice:

The Russian President Vladimir Putin will be pressed next week to back Iran's referral to the United Nations' Security Council, as the EU intensifies pressure on Tehran to halt its nuclear activities. Putin will be in London on Tuesday (4 October) for a regular EU-Russia summit where he will be urged to support referring Iran to the Security Council, which could impose economic sanctions.

In Vienna on Saturday (24 September) a majority of the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) backed an EU-sponsored resolution to refer Iran to the Security Council for failing to comply with nuclear non-proliferation rules, but stopped short of setting a date for referral.

In a compromise aimed at overcoming opposition from Russia, China and others, the EU delayed referral, at least until the next board meeting of the IAEA, expected at the end of November.

With hopes fading that Iran will once again put its uranium enrichment on hold and return to talks with the EU, diplomats say that efforts will now focus on rallying international opinion in favour of referral, starting with Moscow.

According to one EU diplomat, the Union will be asking the Russian government to back Security Council action or put forward an alternative strategy.

Giving a hint of the likely tone of the discussions with Russia, the diplomat said: "We made our gesture in holding back on referral. You guys [Russia] abstained, asking for more time. Our question is, what will you do now? What alternative strategy do you propose?"

Russia, which has the power to veto any sanctions, has recently agreed to build in Iran the Bushehr nuclear reactor, estimated to be worth €830 million.
But despite Russia's highly publicised investment in Iran's energy sector some observers say the EU may well succeed in getting Russian backing for sanctions.

"In the end, Russia will vote against Iran," said Heidi Huuhtanen, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. "Russia's interests in Iran are not as huge as it is very often assumed."

"I don't think then that China would isolate itself," she added, pointing to a positive vote for the EU on the Security Council. READ MORE

But EU diplomats this week also sounded a note of caution over India's support for referral, admitting that the importance of the surprise vote in favour of the IAEA's latest resolution may have been "overstated".

India shocked Tehran and others by voting for the resolution, splitting the non-aligned movement, which Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad had appealed to for support in his diplomacy at the UN a few weeks earlier.

The Vienna agreement is being presented as a diplomatic coup by the EU and US.
Russia and the EU are also expected to discuss easing visa requirements for travellers between the EU and Russia as well as a deal on the re-admission of people entering the Union illegally. Disagreements remain over a three-year transition period that Russia has requested in order to be able to accept the return of citizens from third countries.

andrewbeatty@economist.com