Merkel's Mullah Quandary

Marc Young, Spiegel Online:

Amid ongoing concerns that Iran wants to build a nuclear bomb, the West is quietly mulling the possibility of a military strike. Diplomacy may not yet be exhausted, but already the question of using force against the mullahs in Tehran is threatening to split the German government. READ MORE

The West is worried. Skeptical of Iran's nuclear ambitions, Europe and America have sent a clear message: Iran cannot be allowed to use a civilian atomic energy program as a cover to build a nuclear bomb. But underneath the seeming unshakable display of trans-Atlantic unity, Germany could quickly become the weak link in efforts to increase pressure on Tehran.

Outwardly, Berlin is still on message. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said this week she remains optimistic a diplomatic resolution can still be found for the simmering dispute over Iran's controversial nuclear program. But she also refuses to rule out any options -- keeping the implicit threat of military action against the mullahs on the table.

And keeping pressure on Tehran means added pressure on Merkel's so-called grand coalition made up of Germany's two largest parties the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats: Whereas Merkel's conservatives generally believe Iran will not be cajoled into giving up its nuclear ambitions without the prospect of military confrontation, many members of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) want to make clear Germany will not support the use of force. Should the dispute between Iran and the West continue to escalate, Merkel could quickly have a major domestic political crisis on her hands.

For now, both sides are playing an uneasy waiting game in Berlin. In an interview published on Wednesday, Merkel made clear she still saw a "real chance for a negotiated solution" to the standoff. And her SPD foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, recently reiterated the government had only one foreign policy.

However, following the decision earlier this month by the International Atomic Energy Agency's governing board to refer Tehran to the UN Security Council, sanctions and an eventual military option could top the agenda of the international community much more quickly than anyone in Berlin cares for. From Washington to Jerusalem, there is little doubt plans for a strike against Iranian nuclear sites are being developed in case they become necessary.

Cracks in the coalition

And that's where the cracks in Merkel's coalition rapidly become apparent. SPD chairman Matthias Platzeck said on Monday that "military options must be taken off the table" in dealing with Iran. Comments by other leading Social Democrats have also sounded a lot like ex-SPD leader and Merkel's predecessor Gerhard Schröder, who committed Germany to a course opposing a war against Iraq long before the use of military force was imminent.

Schröder's decision to keep Germany out of the US-led invasion of Iraq found broad public support and won his party the 2002 general elections. But many political observers criticized the former chancellor for categorically rejecting military action so far in advance, arguing it unnecessarily encouraged Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein not to come back to the negotiating table.

Merkel has made clear she will not go down the same path. In the wake of virulent anti-Israel rhetoric by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the chancellor said Tehran could not expect "the tiniest tolerance" from Germany if it questioned Israel's right to exist. At an annual international security conference in Munich earlier this month, she hinted at a connection between Iran and the failure to recognize the dangers poised by Nazi Germany early on. And only days after Iran said it had restarted its uranium-enrichment program, Merkel told German newsmagazine Stern this week: "All those with political responsibility in Germany are aware of their responsibility to stand by Israel."

Her tone has not gone unnoticed among many Social Democrats already chaffing at being the junior coalition partner to Merkel's conservatives. Some are calling for raising the party's profile by taking a strong stand against using military force against Iran.

The leading SPD member of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, asked last week whether Social Democrats should "silently accept" how Merkel was making a "paradigm shift in German foreign policy" since it was clear that she would "no longer rule out a military option if needed." He also made clear the chancellor would run into "energetic opposition" if she tried to have Berlin follow "American military doctrine."

Who speaks for Germany?

Foreign Minister Steinmeier -- who helped formulate Schröder's anti-Iraq war stance as his chief of staff -- is now caught between his own party and his loyalty to Merkel as a member of her cabinet. How much longer he can hide behind diplomatic language is unclear. At this month's Munich security conference, Steinmeier met with members of the US Congress behind closed doors. After hearing Merkel's strong stance, Senator John McCain asked Steinmeier to explain his strategy for dealing with Iran. He ruled out military action and the Americans went back to Washington confused about Berlin's intentions.

"Mrs. Merkel knows it would be a big mistake to take the military option off the table," says Gary Smith, the director of the Berlin-based trans-Atlantic center the American Academy. "The government cannot afford to have two positions on this delicate matter."

Merkel might indeed know just that. But what can she do if half of her coalition is not prepared to toe the line? She has made repairing relations with Washington -- strained under Schröder -- a priority. However, is she willing to risk her own government to stay in US President George Bush's good graces and keep the West's front against Tehran united?

Hoping for a deal with the Russians

Perhaps. Then again, she may not need to. Merkel has made no secret she hopes Iran can be persuaded to accept a deal to have its uranium enrichment done on Russian soil. "We are far from having exhausted all room for maneuver," Merkel told Stern. And even if the mullahs reject the Russian proposal, military force may still fall from agenda for the time being if the UN Security Council decides to impose sanctions on Iran. Berlin certainly would prefer the economic cost of cutting Germany's exports to Iran -- worth €4 billion last year -- over war.

Ultimately, even those German Social Democrats with a deep aversion to the Bush administration's foreign policy realize that Iran is not Iraq. Should Tehran pose a true threat to the existence of Israel, it seems unlikely that many voices in Berlin would be raised against the use of force to protect the Jewish state.

In the meantime, Merkel's advisors will continue trying to paper over the differences within the coalition. But as Ruprecht Polenz, the chancellor's point man for Iran, knows, the mullahs have become experts at "finding hairline cracks" to exploit.

With reporting by DER SPIEGEL staff