Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Iran: Unclear Activities, Oil Price, and Iraq

Mehran Riazaty: Iran Analyst
Unclear Activities: While today Ahamadinejad in the city of Mashhad announced that Iran has succeeded in accomplishing the first uranium enrichment cycle at Natanz Nuclear Facility, his administrative members such as, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Larijani was in the Saudi capital of Riyadh, the head of Iran’s Majlis (Parliament) Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel in Turkey, the head of Iran's Expediency Council Hashimi Rafsanjani in Kuwait, and Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki in African country of Uganda, were assuring these countries that Iran will use its unclear technologies in a peaceful way.

Today, Baztab News Agency reported that the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Gholamreza Aqhazadeh, said that We successfully enriched uranium to 3.5 percent on April 9.” He added that by the end of this year we will complete another project which include 3, 000 centrifuges.

Gholamreza Aqhazadeh became the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization by former Iran’s President Mohammad Khatami. When Khatami was elected as a president some people including the Clinton administration thought Khatami understood the United States’ concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and he would try to domesticating Ayatollah’s atomic passion. But everyone was wrong. In 1997, Iran’s nuclear program was extensive and a priority for the regime, but it was horribly mismanaged. Khatami replaced incompetent Reza Amrollahi and his team chosen more for their revolutionary credential than their skills by Gholamreza Aqhazadeh.

On February 7, 05 – The Deputy of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, in an interview with Iranian TV said that Iran’s progress in the field of peaceful nuclear technology was unbelievable for scientific and political experts who inspected Iran’s nuclear site. My comment at that time was “Could we conclude that if the pace of the progress towards peaceful nuclear technology would be applied to enriching uranium or making atomic bomb wouldn’t it be as fast?”

Oil Price: On March 19, 05- The head of energy commission in Iran’s Parliament, Kamal Danesshyar, said the real price of oil is $100 a barrel and it has not yet reached its real price. He added “The value of oil is more than its current price and the United States because of stopping the progress of peaceful nuclear programs is the main reason for the lack of oil supplies in the world.” It seems that Danensshyar prediction is coming true. READ MORE

Today, crude oil prices have hit record levels in London amid heightening concerns of a conflict between the US and Iran. A barrel of London's benchmark Brent crude climbed to $69.06, while in New York, light sweet crude was at $69.11. Analysts have warned that prices could climb higher as geopolitical tensions increase worries that oil supplies will not be able to keep up with demand.

Iraq On April 10, 06 Fars News: Vice Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, Mohammad Reza Bahonar reminded that his country is to attend talks with the US at the demand of the Iraqi officials and in order to accelerate the process of the occupying troops' withdrawal. He warned the United States against misusing the opportunity, and reiterated, "we would like to help the oppressed and resistant people of Iraq, but if the Americans prove to merely seek their own interests, then not only will Tehran certainly withdraw from the talks, but also Americans will have to sustain many casualties and damages while making no profit, resulting into their humiliation and eventual backtrack from that country."

Today, Fars News Agency reported that the representative of Iraq's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Party (PUK) to Tehran Nazem Dabbaq said that his party views negotiation as the only way of solving problems and, stressing Iran's role in the establishment of regional security and tranquility, described talks between Tehran, Iraq and the United States constructive.

Today, Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported that, the head of Iran's Expediency Council Hashimi Rafsanjani, said that after US forces entered Iraq in 2003, a meeting was held on developments in that area which went no further. Recently, the American side requested resumption of such meetings, Rafsanjani remarked. The Iranian official hinted that the talks may cover issues other than Iraq and justified that with the remark "should the US side show good will." He stated in conclusion that "In the meantime, the talks between the two states would only concern Iraq issues. But, it is customary that small issues lead to bigger ones."

It seems that the Iranian authorities have covered every angle: First, through their nuclear activities they showed to the world that how persistent they are to achieve nuclear technology and that no country could stop them; second, if any negative incident happen to Iran, that will effect oil prices in the world and every country will suffer; third, in Iraq the Iranian theories have challenged the US and show to the world that the United States is not able to bring peace into Iraq without Iran’s help.

Last week, Aftab News Agency reported that Ali Akbar Velayati, former Iran’s Foreign Minister for about 16 years, and current advisor in International Affairs to the Supreme Leader Ayattolah Khameni, in an article called, Forth Strategy, said “We have predicted that Iran will became first power of the region in next few years.” He added that “All of Iran’s interests are located in the Middle East.”

It is most likely at this critical time the Iranian officials, Ali Larijani, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, Hashimi Rafsanjani, and Manouchehr Mottaki, at the same time went to countries in the region to assure them that Iran will use its unclear technologies in a peaceful way, because as Velayati said “All of Iran’s interests are located in the Middle East.”

Mehran Riazaty: a former Iran analyst for the Central Command of the Coalition Forces in Baghdad.
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