Is Iran changing its nuclear negotiations strategy?

Ali Monfaredzadeh, Rooz Online:

With the start of the second round of Iran-Russia nuclear talks and with the rumors about the firing of Javad Vaeedi as Iran's top nuclear negotiator, there seems to be a change in Iran’s approach and strategy to the nuclear issue and talks. READ MORE

Vaeedi, Iran's top negotiator has understandably denied being fired and says that there are two concurrent talks going on in Moscow and Brussels. The one in Moscow is led by Seyed Ali Husseini Pourtash and Vaeedi said that he continues to be the responsible authority for the nuclear talks.

But the Brussels team too is not led by him but by the Mottaki, Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. What seems to be happening is that with the failure of Iran to prevent its nuclear dossier from being sent to the UN Security Council, Iran has changed its approach to the issue. Ali Larijani changed his threatening words from threatening to end of diplomacy if Iran was reported to the Council to that of calling for talks with the Europeans. So the confrontational approach of the hardliners has failed and the strategists must have concluded that if Iran wants to avoid being sanctioned by the Council, it has no choice but to take a moderate path on the issue.

During the period between the IAEA’s condemnation of Iran and the Agency’s referral of Iran to the UN Security Council, official Iranian media and those in its government proclaimed a victory and celebrated its achievements, ignoring the assessment of independent observers that the period was meant to bring Russia and China in line with the US position and goals.

The government ban on all media to report anything substantial on the nuclear standoff gave the wrong signal to everybody that it was rally time to celebrate. Mohsen Rezai, the former commander of the Passdaran Revolutionary Guards Corps who happens to be one of the hawks over the nuclear issue and advocates going full speed ahead, even sent a congratulations message to president Ahmadinejad for his “perseverance” and holding the courses, when the IAEA first did not refer Iran to the UN Security Council, but merely condemned its lack of cooperation.

But soon the picture became clear when Iran’s “allies”, Russia and China, joined hands and votes with other permanent members of the UN Security Council and decided to refer the nuclear dossier to the Council. In fact “success” had turned to such a failure that even the Russian Foreign Minister said that to talk with the Russians over its proposal, Iran had to stop its nuclear activities. The Russian minister had also made it clear that Iran should not count on Russian support for its nuclear enrichment activities in Iran. Thus Iran’s strategic ally too shifted allegiance, or at least this is what Tehran just learned.

Specialists in Iran’s different political groups have concluded that the current negotiations team lacks the necessary expertise in the field. Hosseini Poortash also announced that he has replaced Vaeedi in the Moscow talks because he is more knowledgeable of the issues. All we know of Poortash’s background is that he was an MS graduate from Azad University in international affairs and then moved on to Hamshahri newspaper. Vaeedi’s record shows that he has worked in the cement industry but has also been a member of the Intelligence Ministry, working with Saeed Imami who was the principal operative and architect in the serial murders of the Ministry and who was later found dead in prison. He is also said to have had a hand in at least two murders himself (a Bahai person in Tajikistan and an opposition figure in Canada). Vaeedi ran for a Majlis seat from Shiraz, but did not get the votes. He also participated in some activities related to the last presidential elections and at one time predicted that the US was too preoccupied with other issues and so was not in a position to attack or strike at Iran over the nuclear issue. Vaeedi was moved up to the Supreme National Security Council after the election of Ahmadinejad to the presidency, along with Ali Larijani. His major feat is that he has succeeded in pushing Iran’s nuclear issue to the UN Security Council. In fact all of his predictions and pronouncements have turned out incorrect. On the eve of the IAEA’s condemnation of Iran late last year he publicly is on record stating that there were absolutely no grounds to believe that the IAEA would issue a resolution against Iran on the basis of what the Europeans had drafted. The next day, the board of governors of the IAEA announced that the European resolution had been unilaterally accepted and passed. Vaeedi had also repeatedly said that there was no chance that the IAEA would agree to refer Iran to the UN Security Council. So with him gone, one now needs to wait and see whether the strategy of pursuing Iran’s nuclear interests has changed or this simply another tactic to buy time.